Marketproof New Development & Olshan Luxury Reports Surprising Divergence (May 19-25, 2025)

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This briefing document summarizes the key themes and data points from the Marketproof “New Dev Market Report May 19-25 + New Sales Launches” and the “Olshan Luxury Market Report” for Manhattan residential properties priced at $4 million and above for the week of May 19-25, 2025.

Overall Market Sentiment and Performance:

While there are signs of improvement in the New Development market, particularly in contract volume for luxury properties, overall demand hasn’t reached desired benchmarks. Uncertainty both domestically and internationally is cited as a potential factor influencing the market. The upcoming holiday week is anticipated to slow down deal volume, pushing expectations for momentum into the following week.

Key Takeaways & Most Important Ideas:

Manhattan Luxury Market Soars: The most significant finding is the dramatic increase in luxury contracts signed in Manhattan ($4M+), reaching 55 for the week. This is a substantial jump of 24 contracts from the previous week and represents the largest total since November 15-21, 2021, a banner year for luxury real estate. This suggests a strong rebound in high-end demand, albeit potentially a concentrated surge rather than a sustained trend.

New Development Demand Lagging Benchmarks: Despite improvement, the new development market in Manhattan and Brooklyn is still struggling to meet its contract volume benchmarks. Manhattan missed its benchmark of 30 contracts for the seventh consecutive week, and Brooklyn missed its benchmark of 19 for the fourth straight week.

Queens New Development Showing Strength: In contrast to Manhattan and Brooklyn, the new development market in Queens has consistently met or exceeded its benchmark of five deals for the fifth consecutive week, indicating relative strength in this borough.

Condos Dominate Luxury Sales: In the Manhattan luxury market ($4M+), condos significantly outpaced co-ops in contracts signed, with 36 condo contracts compared to 12 co-op contracts. This aligns with broader market preferences for newer construction and potentially the amenities offered in condo buildings.

Significant New Development Inventory Added: The month of May (up to the 25th) saw the launch of nine new projects across NYC, adding 114 units to the sponsor inventory. Brooklyn saw the highest number of new launches with seven projects.

High Average Asking Price and Volume in Luxury Market: The 55 luxury contracts in Manhattan represent a substantial total weekly asking price sales volume of $400,572,000, with an average asking price of $7,283,177.

Detailed Breakdown and Supporting Facts

New Development Market (May 19-25)

Overall Sentiment: “Demand improved, but still didn’t hit the benchmark. Heading into a holiday, deal volume will likely stay slow, so we’ll have to wait until the following week to see if the new development market can gain some momentum, especially given all the uncertainty both here and abroad.” – Kael Goodman, Co-founder and CEO of Marketproof.

Manhattan Deal Volume: 24 contracts reported, missing the 30-contract benchmark for the seventh consecutive week.

Top Contracts: $13.9M – One High Line, East – #24A

$12.1M – The Katharine – #MAIS

$12.0M – Madison House – #58A

One High Line reported three contracts ranging from $2.515M to $13.895M, with 164 units sold and another six under contract since its September 2022 launch.

Brooklyn Deal Volume: 18 contracts reported, missing the 19-contract benchmark for the fourth straight week.

The Ainsley in Park Slope reported three contracts between $995K and $1.495M, with 12 contracts since its March launch.

Queens Deal Volume: 6 contracts reported, tying or beating the 5-contract benchmark for the fifth consecutive week.

The Austin in Forest Hills reported the most expensive contract at $3,881,150 for a penthouse. Twenty units are under contract since the December launch.

New Sales Launches (May 1-25): Nine new projects with a total of 114 units launched:

Manhattan: 240 West 123rd Street (2 units), Vista Noble Tower (42 units).

Brooklyn: 630 Grand Avenue (32 units), 72 Quincy Street (6 units), 684 Dean Street (5 units), The Manhattan Belle Condominium (6 units), 78 Harman Street (8 units), Two Sixteen Condominium (6 units), Pulaski Gardens (7 units).

Manhattan Luxury Market ($4M+) (May 19-25)

Contracts Signed: 55, a significant increase of 24 from the previous week.

Historical Context: This is the largest number of contracts signed since November 15-21, 2021 (67 contracts), highlighting a strong week for the luxury sector.

Breakdown by Property Type

Condos: 36

Co-ops: 12

Condops: 2

Townhouses: 5

Top Contracts

No. 1: 35-37-39 East 63rd Street (three combined townhouses), asking $34.5 million. This property spans 20,036 sq ft and includes a 7-unit condominium being converted to a single-family home.

No. 2: East 24A at 500 West 18th Street (One Highline), asking $13.895 million. This condo features 3,188 sq ft with 4 bedrooms and amenities.

Average and Median Asking Prices:

The average asking price for the 55 contracts was $7,283,177, with a median asking price of $5,995,000.

Asking Price Metrics (by Property Type):

Co-ops: Average Asking Price: $6,523,667

Condos: Average Asking Price: $6,780,389; Average $/sq.ft.: $2,551; Average Size: 2,658 sq.ft.

Condops: Average Asking Price: $4,650,000; Average $/sq.ft.: $2,650; Average Size: 1,755 sq.ft.

Townhouses: Average Asking Price: $13,778,800; Average $/sq.ft.: $1,680; Average Size: 8,201 sq.ft.

Discount and Days on Market:

The average discount from the original asking price to the last asking price was 7%, with an average of 543 days on market for these luxury properties.

The week of May 19-25, 2025, presented a mixed picture for the New York City real estate market. While the Manhattan luxury sector experienced a significant surge in contract activity, reaching a multi-year high, the broader new development market in Manhattan and Brooklyn continues to face challenges in meeting expected benchmarks. Queens, however, demonstrates consistent performance in new development contracts. The high volume and prices in the luxury market suggest strong demand at the very top end, but it remains to be seen if this momentum will extend to other segments of the new development market in the coming weeks. The impact of ongoing uncertainty and the upcoming holiday period will be crucial factors to monitor.

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Image courtesy of One High Line.